A firefighter senses a floor is about to collapse. A financial analyst senses nothing at all, even after thirty years. Two researchers who agreed on nothing finally worked out why. Kapari applies their rule, including against itself.
Daniel Kahneman spent his career showing that expert intuition fails. Gary Klein spent his showing that it works. In 2009 they wrote a paper together to settle which of them was right.
The answer: both, depending on the ground. Experience only makes you reliable when two conditions hold. The ground must follow stable regularities. And you must have had the chance to learn them, through long practice with fast feedback.
The firefighter has both: fire obeys physics, and he finds out immediately when he is wrong. The analyst has neither: markets shift, and the result lands years later, blurred by a thousand other causes.
Kapari spots decisions with no past to lean on, or whose effects play out very far away in time. On those, it shows a banner: low-validity ground, read the verdict with caution.
This is not boilerplate. It is the engine telling you that neither human experience nor a simulated panel is reliable on that kind of ground.
The rule applies without exception, including when it works against us.
Every tool on this market returns an answer with the same poise, whatever the question. That is comfortable, and it is false.
Knowing when your instrument is reliable is worth more than the reading itself. A thermometer that always shows a temperature, even when broken, is useless.
When the banner appears, the result stays useful: the objections and the camps are still leads. It is the overall verdict that needs handling with care.
Kahneman, D. and Klein, G. (2009), "Conditions for Intuitive Expertise: A Failure to Disagree", American Psychologist. It is the paper where two opposing researchers set out together to find why they disagreed, and found they had been describing two different grounds.
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