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Kapari Deciphers

Ending a Major Acquisition: The Price of Clarity

On December 18, 2023, Adobe and Figma mutually ended their $20 billion merger plan, with Adobe paying a $1 billion break fee.

Ending a $20 billion deal might seem like a resounding failure, but it sometimes reveals a form of victory. On December 18, 2023, the news broke: Adobe and Figma announced the end of their merger plan, more than a year after its spectacular launch. As markets digested the $1 billion break fee paid by Adobe, reactions behind the scenes divided. The response is divided, and what holds it back first is doubt about the ability to execute the upcoming strategy. But for some, this unexpected termination is a liberation, a necessary cost for regained strategic clarity.
Decision of December 18, 2023Published

How to manage the termination of a major acquisition in the face of market and team expectations?

First, clarify the future post-termination strategy, explaining what is gained beyond the financial loss. When 65 simulated voices reacted to Adobe's termination of the Figma acquisition, about half opposed it, with doubt focusing first on the ability to execute this new roadmap.

At a glance
More opposition than support, with a defector on the Investors & Shareholders side.
How the panel responds
Divided response
Risk the announcement goes wrong
Moderate
What holds it back first
Doubt about execution
Simulated panel of 65 voices
18 in favor15 unsure32 opposed

The context, in plain terms

On September 15, 2022, Adobe and Figma had announced their intention to merge, a deal estimated at approximately $20 billion. This project aimed to integrate the leader in collaborative design, Figma, within the creative software giant, Adobe.

However, on December 18, 2023, the two companies mutually agreed to terminate the merger agreement. This decision came after they concluded there was no clear path to obtaining the necessary regulatory approvals from the European Commission and the UK's Competition and Markets Authority.

That day, it was reported that Adobe would pay Figma a $1 billion break fee. Adobe confirmed in its own press release that the termination agreement resolved all outstanding issues of the transaction, including this fee. Publicly, the full contractual mechanisms of this fee are not entirely visible, and nothing indicates a possible reversal or reopening of the transaction to date.

A Billion for Freedom?

The announcement of December 18 is read in two distinct ways by the simulated panel. For Adobe investors, it is the cost of a failure, a billion dollars spent with no direct return on investment. For others, notably some Figma customers and employees, it is the price of preserved independence, the end of an uncertainty that weighed on the platform's future.

Before a panel of simulated voices, the decision receives a divided response. About half of the voices oppose it, about one in four express doubt, and about one in three support this termination. The group of Adobe and Figma employees, as well as management bodies, receives the decision less favorably than customers or business partners.

For teams, this decision raises questions about future direction and projects that were to stem from the integration, thus protecting their professional stability and company vision. A decision to terminate is also a decision to restart.

The Shadow of Doubt on Future Execution

Doubt about execution is the primary concern. The termination of the acquisition, though motivated by regulatory hurdles, raises questions about Adobe's ability to pivot quickly and effectively toward a new growth strategy. Objections do not focus so much on the principle of termination as on how Adobe will use the freed resources, and how the company will compensate for Figma's absence in its portfolio.

On this point, The Cost of Clarity is missing: one can approve the end of regulatory complexity and not believe that Adobe will immediately know how to leverage this new situation to define a clear and mobilizing path. The market and teams expect a concrete roadmap, not just the end of a chapter. The price of termination is that of the new direction.

The Victory of Free Users

Amidst the divided responses, one voice stands out, that of a Design Educator, declaring support for the termination, while many customers and users express doubt. He states: “Adobe’s influence would’ve killed Figma’s accessibility for students, now we can keep teaching it without corporate strings attached.” This perspective highlights a strong user expectation: the preservation of Figma's independence and accessibility.

This position contrasts with an Adobe Shareholder who opposed it, believing that “A billion dollars for a failed deal is a reckless use of capital, Adobe’s M&A strategy needs a hard reset.” A Figma Early Investor, for his part, sees the break fee as a win for early backers, despite the execution challenges without the founders.

We ran the exercise three times: same answer. This highlights the persistence of these concerns. The freedom of a product is also a value for its users.

After the Termination, the New Roadmap

Now that the decision is public, the first follow-up action for a leader is to communicate a clear vision of the post-termination strategy. This means reassuring teams about the future, explaining how the company intends to innovate and grow without the acquisition, and justifying the fee paid as an investment in strategic clarity.

Adobe indeed resolved all outstanding issues of the transaction that day, thus turning the page on this chapter. However, this case does not state what Adobe did publicly to articulate its new growth strategy after this announcement.

Leaders must transform what could be perceived as a failure into an opportunity for strategic reaffirmation, demonstrating that The Cost of Clarity is not a wasted expense, but the price of a renewed direction. The end of one ambition opens the way to another.

Where this story comes from

What you just read comes from a rehearsal, not a report. Before a panel of 65 simulated voices, the Kapari test bench showed that the termination of the Figma acquisition, though costly, was seen by some as a strategic liberation, while the main brake remained doubt about Adobe's ability to execute a new roadmap. This exercise, which reveals lines of tension and points of support, can take place upstream, for a decision not yet announced, to understand its reception and adjust it before publication.

The full simulation, on the same decision
Open the full run, the very one this article reports on: the distribution, the decision note, the dissonances, and every voice on the panel, one by one, including those that contradict the conclusion. Nothing is held back, and no account is needed.
Open the full simulation
How the panel responds
Divided response
Risk the announcement goes wrong
Moderate
What holds it back first
Doubt about execution

The questions readers ask

How to reassure teams after the termination of a major acquisition project?

After the termination announcement, it is essential to communicate quickly about the revised strategic vision. Leaders must explain how this decision, though difficult, opens new growth and development opportunities for teams, focusing on internal projects and upcoming innovations.

What message to address to shareholders after paying a significant break fee?

To shareholders, the message must emphasize financial discipline and regained strategic clarity. The $1 billion break fee paid by Adobe must be presented as a necessary investment to avoid greater future costs related to uncertain integration and to focus on more profitable long-term initiatives.

Is this a poll or a prediction?

The voices cited in this case are from a panel of 65 simulated voices. They are not a poll or a prediction. The numbers cited are from this panel, not a share of public opinion. The reported facts come from dated and named sources. Kapari sheds light on the decision; it does not make it.

How Kapari computes and reads its signals: the method

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